23 January 2023
Australian cattle slaughter increased as early year
resumptions continued by meat processors. Read below Brazilian
rapid fill of USA "other country US quota."
Queensland weekly slaughter increased in line with expanded
cattle processing. 33,410 total cattle slaughter for the week of
13 January released by MLA. Lower cow slaughter than NSW in Qld as
plants realign purchasing and review the state of markets,
shipping and values.
Qld cow slaughter at 8,603 head for the week of 13 Jan 2023.
The USA imported frozen boneless beef market opened to more
buying interest in the latest week of the New Year. There
has been a reduction in total beef processing and more buying
interest at the current low prices for grinding beef. The
Qld medium cow cutout has marginally improved to A$4.60 per kg
carcase weight. We have updated the latest week with a
very small sample of OTH grids as MLA are only publishing monthly.
That is not supporting beef price transparency.
Brazil has already filled
39% of the other country USA imported beef quota after only
3 weeks. Latest week arrivals jumped to 3,836 tonnes
total beef and 3,185 tonnes of beef trimmings. Clearance of
Brazilian beef in bond has been rapid and this indicates
Brazil has sufficient capacity to fill the entire quota and
then supply at full duty, subject to market demand, for the
remainder of 2023, shutting out other small US supplying
countries.
Aust NZ total beef arrivals week 3 2023, up to 7, 017 tonnes.
Indicator price of 90cl imported frozen Australian and New Zealand
boneless beef 236 US c lb ex dock.
Brazilian beef imports have risen sharply in week 3 to 3,185
tonnes. 39% of the other country US imported beef quota has
already been filled so far this year.
Combined Aust NZ frozen beef trimmings arrivals up to 5,459 tonnes. Australian beef
trimmings up to 2,462 and New Zealand up to 2,997
tonnes.
Total imported beef trimmings arrivals in week 3 jumped to 12,424.
The USDA 90cl fresh lean beef price formulated basis up to
US247.77 per 100 lb, EC 246.86 per 100 lb.
USDA daily choice beef cutout value 20 Jan
2023, dropped sharply to US$271.51 per 100 lbs.
Weekly US meat production BEEF down 1.6%
PORK up 2.2%. TOTALS up 0.2%.
Combined Aust NZ beef arrivals week 3 2023, are up 7.2%.
Australian arrivals up 9.4% and New
Zealand is up 4.3% compared to the
same period last year.
Total Australian cattle slaughter 82,070 head, week 3
2023
Total NZ beef slaughter week 12 2022-2023 50,348
head
Arrivals of Aust mutton, lamb, goatmeat to week 3 2023
Goat meat down to 506 tonnes.
Lamb arrivals down to 3,352 tonnes, 18%
lower.
Mutton arrivals up to 1,909 tonnes, 4%
higher.
Review of Brazilian and Aust NZ beef trimming supplies trends.
Brazil has kicked off the New Year moving bonded supply from the
end of 2022 into warehouses for rapid entry into the lean imported
beef supply chain. Market reporters indicated 235-237 US cents per
lb for Australian and New Zealand 90 cl beef trimmings with USDA
reporting 236 US c lb, lifting from the likely bottom of the cycle
price level of 234 US c lb ex dock. Brazil is estimated at 232-233
US c lb transfer into store. The chart below indicates the trend
throughout 2022 into the first 3 weeks of 2023. Supplies jumped
sharply and it will remain to be seen coming weeks of USA total
beef supplies as well as competitive protein. USDA FAS reported US
beef exports for week 6-12 January of 15,700 tonnes with markets
of Japan, Korea and China and Mexico buying.
USDA slaughter data.
Reasonably positive for the beef complex.
USDA reported: Record Low Veal and Lamb and Mutton Production in December 2022Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 4.47 billion pounds in December, down 7 percent from the 4.78 billion pounds produced in December 2021. Beef production, at 2.22 billion pounds, was 6 percent below the previous year.
USA cold storage stocks will be released by USDA 25 Jan 2023.
USDA cattle on feed data. Generally bullish trend,
however we need to look ahead at overall production and
consumption, as well imports, exports and major drivers.
https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/m326m174z/fb495m193/x059dm53h/cofd0123.txtUnited States Cattle on Feed Down 3 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on January 1, 2023. The inventory was 3 percent below January 1, 2022.
Market update China beef
Australia finished the year of December 2022 as the leading supplier of chilled beef to China.
New Zealand appears as a weak seller with USA and Australia securing premium values for the limited market access. Brazil has not significantly entered the chilled beef market and dispatches chilled beef to a long list of markets at levels around US$4.50 per kg. Some suppliers to China hold their small volumes in place to secure the market segments they target and Brazil and Argentina dominate the frozen beef segment.
USA and Australia secure premium in China to the great bulk of
the competition, however Russia does achieve higher values. Small
suppliers swap places on the lower section of the list to maintain
continued performance as a regular supplier. Brazil
continues its dominance but we have previously noted fairly
significant unit value reductions by that country as the year of
2022 rolled on.
The mega market of China absorbed 7.40 million tonnes of all meats in the year ended December 2022. While beef values held year on year, pork imports were sharply down and there was also pressure on mutton, lamb and poultry. Pork prices were the lowest at US$2.22 per kg. Beef imports were valued at US$6.60 per kg for the year and US$6.02 per kg for the month of December 2022.
E&OE
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