4 October 2022

Aust NZ  total beef arrivals week 39 2022, down  to 5,864 tonnes.                                            
Indicator price of 90cl imported frozen Australian and New Zealand boneless beef 262 US c lb ex dock.                                           
Combined Aust NZ frozen beef trimmings arrivals down to 3,964 tonnes.  Australian beef trimmings up to 2,068 tonnes and New Zealand down  to 1,896 tonnes.                                           
Total imported beef trimmings arrivals in week 38  up to 7,982 tonnes                                           
The USDA 90cl fresh lean beef price down to US262.76 per 100 lb.                                           
So far in 2022, in 39 weeks, the imported 90c average indicator weakened to $289.8  US per 100 lb ex dock.                                            
USDA daily choice beef cutout value 23 Sept 2022, down to US$243.75 per 100 lbs.                                           
Weekly US meat production BEEF up 1.4% PORK down 2.5%. TOTALS down 0.6% from comparison.                                            

Week 48 2021-2022 saw NZ bull slaughter down 29.7% and cow slaughter up 3.4 %.                                
Combined Aust NZ beef arrivals  week 39 2022, are down 13.1%.                               
Australian arrivals down 1.6% and New Zealand is down 21.8% compared to the same period last year.                               
New Zealand total beef slaughter was down 21%, 23,298 head in week 48.                               
Total Australian cattle slaughter 79,034 head, week of 23 September 2022. Holiday week.                               
                               
Arrivals of Aust mutton, lamb, goatmeat to week 39 2022                               
Goat meat increased 53% on last year to 11,501 tonnes.                               
Lamb arrivals up 9% to 57,764 tonnes.                               
Mutton arrivals lifted 6% to 14,001 tonnes.                               

Updated USA meat exports

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

Unit value trends ABS statistics - key market trends

so far in 2022, there has been an improvement in the average unit value of frozen boneless beef in key markets. USA values have eased by the weighted average unit value improved from AUD$7.43 per kg in March 2022 to AUD$8.11 in June according to ABS data.

RBA statistics. Trends in AUD/USD.

The US $ has strengthened and AUD is far more competitive in a range of markets. Some of the improved exchange rate advantage has been eroded by world market uncertainty, inflation and rising interest rates, hangover from the pandemic and ongoing supply chain and logistics challenges.

source: Reserve Bank Australia.

Japanese beef import market update

USA and Australia compete strongly in the premium Japanese beef market.

The USA maintains its dominance in chilled beef imports as a whole, but Australia specialises in chilled beef loins.

As we have identified previously, the USA serves its massive domestic market first in chilled beef loins and the export surplus goes to Japan and other markets. Australia seeks to maximise returns for chilled beef loins, which attract premium prices. Australia has near 44% of the volume share and several competitors are noted including Uruguay and Mexico. New Zealand and Canada are traditional suppliers in this market segment.

Australia has a higher market share of the frozen Japanese beef market.

Australia dominates in the Japanese frozen boneless beef segment with supplies to Japanese food service and QSR.

USA specialises in frozen beef briskets and plates with its volume of grain fed beef in these cuts finding expanding global markets.

Canada and Mexico also target this market segment at lower unit values that USA.

Beef offals are key Japanese import market components with numerous countries seeking to increase penetration of valuable co-products. USA achieves the highest unit value in USD$ kg, followed by Australia.

USA has a 53% volume share of the beef offals market segment, followed by Australia at 18%, of the listed supplying countries. Australian average unit value AUD$18.30 per kg.

Hong Kong, the largest open free entry market for frozen boneless beef globally.

The list of suppliers and values are the most interesting part of this beef import market. In spite of the pandemic and shipping, logistics challenges, the Hong market displays a very wide and interesting list of beef origins. Lesser known supplies include Bosnia, South Korea (premium beef), Ukraine and Russia. One I had not sighted before is Mozambique. Australia is the largest volume supplier of boneless chilled beef. The exchange rate used for USD$ and Hong Kong$ is 0.13. Brazil dominates volume market share of frozen boneless beef at a unit value of US$4 kg. The Chinese mainland supply to Hong Kong is small at higher unit values.

USA achieves high unit values for both chilled and frozen beef for the Hong Kong market. Thailand, Netherlands and South Africa are noted cheap sellers at US$2 per kg. We continue to find low uneconomic unit values from France, Germany, Belgium and Denmark. These market entry values are at odds with the EU having the highest beef carcase prices globally, according to Eurostat.

© agInfo